Google shows AI model that can make ‘unprecedentedly accurate’ weather forecasts

Google DeepMind introduces GraphCast. According to the tech giant, this AI model can make an ‘unprecedentedly accurate’ weather forecast for the next ten days in less than a minute. DeepMind has made the code of the GraphCast model open source.

GraphCast can make fast medium-term weather forecasts with ‘unprecedented accuracy’, according to Google subsidiary DeepMind. The tech giant shares details about the AI ​​model in a peer-reviewed report on Science which, according to Google DeepMind, is in many cases faster and more accurate than the HRES system of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, also known as the ECMWF.

According to its creators, the deep learning model can generate accurate weather forecasts for the next ten years. generate days. GraphCast can also warn earlier about extreme weather conditions, Google claims. The model can more accurately track the path of cyclones, ‘identify atmospheric rivers’ linked to flood risks and predict the onset of extreme temperatures.

To date, weather forecasts are mainly calculated using numerical weather prediction. Weather forecasts therefore start with ‘carefully defined physics equations’, Google writes. These comparisons are then translated into algorithms that are run on supercomputers.

The GraphCast model is trained on ‘decades of historical weather data’. According to its creators, the model has learned the cause-and-effect relationships that determine how the weather develops. The model is trained on the ECMWF ERA5 dataset, which is based on weather observations such as satellite images, radars and weather stations. More traditional numerical weather predictions are used in that dataset to fill in any gaps when observations are incomplete for certain periods, Google writes.

According to Google, GraphCast makes predictions based on two datasets: the six-hour weather conditions ago, and the current weather conditions. Based on this, the weather is predicted for the next six hours. This forecast can then be continued for another six hours, and so on. This can provide accurate results up to ten days into the future.